A Changing Industry
What could the future of the aerospace aftermarket look like?
When you’ve worked in aerospace for more than 35 years, it’s hard not to think about how much has changed. If someone had shown me the tools we use today back then, I probably wouldn’t have believed them.
That naturally makes you wonder what the next twenty years will bring. Interestingly, I don’t think the changes we’ll see over the next two decades will be as dramatic as those we’ve already experienced. Innovation certainly isn’t slowing down, but we’ve already become so much more efficient that I think the next phase will be about refining what we do rather than transforming it.
People will still matter
Artificial intelligence is already making a real difference to the way we work. At Artemis, we use it to analyse data, manipulate information across different formats and compare pricing across thousands of aircraft components in seconds rather than hours.
Over the next decade, I expect AI will help us interrogate data even more effectively, make decisions more quickly and predict the need for spares with greater accuracy than we do today.
But I don’t believe AI will replace people. Every project is different and still relies on experience, judgement and professionalism. Customers want to deal with people they trust, particularly when safety and compliance are involved. AI takes care of much of the administrative work, but the important decisions remain human ones.
We’ll also need to use it responsibly. Like any powerful technology, AI can be used well or badly, so maintaining the right level of human oversight and accountability will remain essential. It will allow the most responsible companies to deliver even more effectively.
Consolidation will continue
The biggest structural change I expect to see is continued consolidation across the aerospace sector.
We’ve already seen it in aircraft leasing, while major manufacturers continue to acquire smaller businesses. There’s a clear drive to create larger organisations that reach across related sectors.
I don’t think that fundamentally changes the aftermarket, although it may make life more challenging for some businesses. Those that continue to grow while maintaining high levels of customer service will remain in the strongest position.
Geopolitics is the biggest risk
While technology dominates many conversations about the future, I actually think the greatest threat lies elsewhere.
Aviation depends on global supply chains and stable energy markets. A major escalation of conflict, particularly in the Middle East, would have far-reaching consequences, affecting fuel supplies, other petrochemical costs, and the wider industry.
Businesses have always adapted to recessions and economic cycles. Political instability on that scale is much harder to prepare for.
The next decade won’t look like the last
Aviation will continue improving its environmental performance and manufacturers will keep developing more efficient aircraft. However, until we see a genuine breakthrough, such as commercially viable hydrogen technology, I expect progress to be gradual rather than dramatic.
Looking back, the changes over the past 35 years have been extraordinary. Looking ahead, I don’t think the two decades will bring the same level of disruption.
Instead, I see an industry becoming steadily more efficient, using technology to remove more of the routine tasks while allowing experienced people to focus on what they do best: making informed decisions, building trusted relationships and delivering superior service.
